Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles): Vick says he’s 100% healthy, Andy Reid has named him the starter, and he seems 100% convinced of it this time. Now the Colts defense is pretty good against the pass (ranked 12th), but Michael Vick is a different breed of quarterback. I expect a decent amount of rushing yards out of Vick, particularly on third down, when he’s running away from Colts defensive ends Dwight Freeny and Robert Mathis, as they push him out of the pocket. I wouldn’t be surprised that Vick hits some big plays down the field, as the corners and safeties are spying Vick, making sure they can track him down if/when he runs.
Eli Manning (New York Giants): If Jason Campbell can have a pretty good game, then Eli Manning should be able to have a heck of a game this week against the Seattle Seahawks.
Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears): Cutler draws the lucky card this week in playing the Buffalo Bills. Start him if he’s your #1 guy, and if he’s your #2, you may even want to consider starting him anyways.
Jon Kitna (Dallas Cowboys): Felix Jones banged up, Dallas is going to be down since they are playing the Green Bay Packers, so they’ll be playing catchup, and Dallas is a pass first team anyways. A perfect storm for Kitna to light it up, so it’s definitely possible that Kitna puts up similar numbers as last week, although you hope he cuts down the interceptions and throws one more touchdown pass.
Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Week in and week out Freeman puts up solid numbers, over 200 yards passing with at least 1 touchdown. With a Falcons defense that is better against the run than against the pass, look for a few more throws from Freeman this week, which hopefully results in a second touchdown pass.
QB’s that I hate:
Matt Schaub (Houston Texans): Matt Schaub has been very inconsistent this year, some having to do with the teams he is playing against and also having to do with the injuries to his receivers/tight ends. That being said, this week Schaub faces the San Diego Chargers, who are ranked 2nd in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks. So an inconsistent Schaub, with only one receiving threat in Johnson, facing the Chargers, equals not a good play this week.
Brett Favre (Minnesota Vikings): After last season, everyone was thinking, yeah, Favre put up ridiculous numbers (the best of his career), and we don’t expect that, but we certainly expect good production. Fast forward to Week 9, and Favre has had a stinker of a season so far. Now with no Moss, Favre has even less of a chance to do anything worthwhile fantasywise. I’d have him on my bench the rest of the year.
Chad Henne (Miami Dolphins): Playing the Baltimore Ravens, who are currently ranked 9th in giving up fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, so not a fantastic matchup. Over the last three games he’s only topped 250 yards once, with the other two games having 217 and 231 yards. He does have good weapons in Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess, Henne is the one throwing the ball, not those guys. I just don’t have an overwhelming feeling of fantasy good for Henne this week.
Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals): Listen, I’m a Bengals fan, so I hope Palmer proves me wrong and goes off for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, but the fact of the matter is, I don’t think that’s happening, particularly against the Pittsburgh Steelers. True that Drew Brees had a pretty good game against the Steelers in Week 8, but Carson Palmer is no Drew Brees, so if Palmer sniffs 250 yards this week, I’ll be surprised.
RB’s that I love not named Adrian Peterson:
Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones (Kansas City Chiefs): Make this three weeks in a row with a good matchup for this tandem, as they are playing the Oakland Raiders in Week 9. Raiders are currently ranked 28th in giving up fantasy points to opposing running backs, so there’s a distinct possibility both could go over 100 yards rushing (throw in Charles’s receiving ability, and he’s even ranked higher this week at 6, while Jones is ranked 13th)
Darren McFadden (Oakland Raiders): Same game, different team, as McFadden of the Oakland Raiders has officially reached start him no matter what status. And considering that the Chiefs are ranked 18th in giving up fantasy points to opposing running backs, he has a favorable matchup this week.
LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles): The Colts are ranked 27th against the run, McCoy should be healthier after the bye week, so the matchup is in McCoy’s favor this week. Expect some big yards from McCoy as well as quick drop down passes from Vick.
Petyon Hillis (Cleveland Browns): Coming off a bye week, which allowed Hillis’s thigh to heal to what should be 100%, and playing the New England Patriots, who are ranked 22nd in giving up fantasy points to opposing running backs, you have to have a good feeling about his chances to put up 100 yards and have at least one touchdown. You may even get a few catches from him, as Colt McCoy will be checking the ball down to his tight ends and running backs.
LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene (New York Jets): Great matchup this week in playing the worst run defense in the league in the Detroit Lions. There should be plenty of carries to go around to make Tomlinson a must start as a #1 back and makes Shonn Greene one of the better flex plays and a borderline #2 back this week.
Matt Forte (Chicago Bears): Bills are ranked 31st overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing running backs. Look for Forte to have over a hundred yards rushing and catch some balls as well. I expect a big week in total yards of scrimmage for Forte.
RB’s I hate:
Cedric Benson (Cincinnati Bengals): Second straight week that Cedric Benson ends up on this list, and it’s the same reason I hate Carson Palmer. Benson will be facing the Pittsburgh Steelers defense, particularly the run defense, which ranks 2nd overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens): Now, if you have Ray Rice, you’re starting him no matter what, cause face it, you drafted him in the top 4, so you can’t sit a top 4 pick. Nonetheless, I don’t think he has a great week since he will be facing the 4th ranked run defense in the Miami Dolphins. But don’t forget that Ray Rice also gets his fair share of targets out of the backfield, and against a Miami defense that is good against the run and bad against the pass, Rice still should be able to pick up some points, just not as many as usual.
Jahvid Best (Detroit Lions): After a fantastic first two weeks of the season, Best has certainly leveled off, to barely making an impact week in and week out. The highest yardage he has had since Week 2 has been 67 yards, which came against the St. Louis Rams, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 2 either. Now he comes up against a New York Jets defense that is ranked #1 overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing running backs. To say this is a bad matchup is an understatement. It’s a horrible matchup, so I wouldn’t count on much from Best this week.
Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks): Lately no doubt you’ve been plugging Lynch into your lineup because he has good matchups. Trouble is, he still didn’t even do much with those, so in facing the 5th ranked run defense in the New York Giants, nothing is going to change. Add that to the fact that his offensive line just plain sucks, and you have a back who will struggle to even get 50 yards this week.
Felix Jones (Dallas Cowboys): Jones has a sprained ankle and was only able to run straight ahead on Wednesday, with no lateral movement. While Jones is a speedster, and obviously excels in straight ahead running, problem is that Jones is a running back and needs lateral movement to break it to the outside or avoid the tackles while running up the middle. Stack that injured ankle against the 6th ranked run defense in the Green Bay Packers, and you have a recipe for a bad week. You probably still are flexing him, but I would be weary of making him my #2 back this week. If you have better options, go with those.
All New Orleans Saints Running Backs: Until a healthy Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush is in the lineup, the running back situation isn’t that spectacular for the Saints. They do have a better matchup this week, which means you may be able to flex Ivory if you want, but if you have better options than a Saints running back, go with them for sure.
WR’s I love not named Roddy White:
Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis Colts) (tied for 29th in targets): With double digit targets in 2 out of the last 3 games, Garcon’s role in the offense has increased, as it should with the injuries to Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. With Clark out for the season and Collie still injured, he’s a great #2 receiver who has potential to be a borderline #1 week in and week out. You got him, you play him every week no matter the matchup.
Mike Willams (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) (tied for 16th in targets): Recently I was helping out a buddy of mine figure out what to do about his flex position. He had Mario Manningham (the 3rd receiver for the New York Giants), and he wasn’t sure if wanted to stay that way or pick up a free agent who may be a better option. So he’s scrolling down through the available free agents and amazingly enough, Mike Williams of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is available. It was a no brainer. He immediately pulled the trigger on the drop of Manningham and the add of Williams. Now, chances are you are in a league who has people who care, so you probably wouldn’t be able to have it that easy. But if you do have Williams, and you don’t have a better #2 option, he’s a great play this week. Should put up close to 100 yards with a touchdown.
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh Steelers) (tied for 40th in targets): Now Wallace doesn’t get a as many targets as his teammate Hines Ward, but he makes much more of his opportunities. This week’s matchup has Wallace facing the Cincinnati Bengals, who are ranked 16th overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Add that to the fact that the Bengals secondary is banged up, there is little to no pass rush by the Bengals defensive line, and you have an extremely favorable matchup for a guy who loves to catch the deep ball. I could see a couple big plays for Wallace this week. A solid #2 receiver.
Patrick Crayton (San Diego Chargers) (tied for 39th in targets): So I had a dream this week and this dream involved Patrick Crayton. I dreamt that Patrick Crayton was running a 15 yard post pattern, caught the ball perfectly on the run, ran by about 3 Houston Texans players, and took it to the endzone. Now I don’t claim to be a prophet, but I already felt great about Crayton this week. Nnow with this dream, I feel even better. Huge endorsement from The Consigliere here!
Johnny Knox (Chicago Bears) (tied for 27th in targets): Now the Bills are ranked 11th overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, which means they don’t give up many touchdowns to wide receivers, but I have a feeling in my gut that says Johnny Knox is going find the end zone at least once this week. He’s a good #2 and a definite flex play this week.
James Jones/Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers) (tied for 33rd and 38th in targets): No Donald Driver this week means an increased role for both Jones and Nelson. Jones should step up into the #2 receiver role, with Nelson stepping into the #3. Also, let’s not forget the fact that they will be facing the Dallas pass defense, which is ranked 29th overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. This means Jones is a borderline #2/#3 receiver and one of the better flex plays this week, where Nelson is a definite flex, borderline #3 depending on your roster.
WR’s I hate:
Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco (Cincinnati Bengals) (1st and tied for 9th in targets): Same reason I don’t like Carson Palmer this week, playing the Steelers defense. If either of these two ends up with a decent game, I would expect it to be Ochocinco, but I don’t see much production from either to be honest. You may get 60 yards a piece with one of them scoring a touchdown.
Hines Ward (Pittsburgh Steelers) (tied for 31st in targets): My gut says that Hines Ward won’t be having a great game this week. I think he’s slowing down and lost a little bit of the step he did have. Throw in the fact that Wallace will see a few more targets and the rookie Emannuel Sanders might steal a few, and you have just a so-so week for Hines. I’d say he’s a #3 receiver or flex play this week.
Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs) (tied for 30t in targets): Bowe has 5 touchdowns in the last 3 games, so he’s absolutely on fire. Well consider the Oakland Raiders to be the water that puts this fire out. The Raiders are ranked 4th overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so I don’t expect much production from Bowe. Add to the fact that the Raiders are atrocious against the run, and you have a lot of Charles and Jones, and a very little of Bowe.
Percy Harvin (Minnesota Vikings) (tied for 21st in targets): No Randy Moss, Sidney Rice still injured and not playing, a banged up Favre, and I think Harvin doesn’t have a great week. The main culprit I think is Moss no longer on the team. Harvin is a slot receiver and a pretty darn good one at that. Take away Moss’s deep threat, and that brings the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, which gives Harvin less room to catch and run with the ball, which is where slot receivers make their killing. Harvin is certain to still get the targets, but I don’t think he has the usual production out of those.
Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers) (tied for 25th in targets): Matt Moore isn’t exactly a stellar QB. He seems to be a Derek Anderson type of QB (which is interesting since they both played QB at Oregon State), who seems to make good throws occasionally, but never shows enough consistency to convince you he’s a starting QB in the NFL. The inconsistency will hurt Smith this week, particularly against the Saints, who are ranked #1 overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. I’d say maybe a low end #2 and a definite flex play.
TE’s I love not named Antonio Gates:
Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) (13th in targets): I love when I’m right, and I was dead on with Witten last week. In week 9 I still love me some Witten, not nearly as much, but he’s definitely up there with a bunch of other tight ends on bye this week. The Packers are ranked 23rd in giving up fantasy points to opposing tight ends, so a good draw for Witten.
Owen Daniels (Houston Texans) (tied for 42nd in targets): I was severely disappointed in the fact that Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans only targeted Daniels 3 times last week. I know the Colts are the best in the league against the tight end, but you would have thought a few more targets would have gone his way. Now Daniels is facing the Chargers, who everyone knows couldn’t stop a tight end if they played all 11 guys on defense against him. The Texans should know this and send the ball Daniels’s way more this week, leading to some good numbers finally.
Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota Vikings) (tied for 38th in targets): No Moss means increased targets for Shiancoe, who has proven over the last two years he can be counted on to step up and have a good game when needed. Well they sure as hell need one this week, as the Vikings are 2-5, on the brink of flushing their season down the proverbial toilet. I think Shiancoe gets in the endzone at least once this week and puts up around 75 yards receiving.
Benjamin Watson (Cleveland Browns): Colt McCoy starting another week, and if you haven’t learned already, I’ll say it again. Rookie quarterbacks love their tight ends. So McCoy should love Watson even more this week since the Browns will be facing the 28th ranked defense in giving up fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Jacob Tamme (Indianapolis Colts) (tied for 64th in targets): Don’t be fooled by his target ranking. Tamme wasn’t even targeted until last week, and he was targeted 9 times, catching 6 for 64 yards and a touchdown. Not bad for a guy who hadn’t even had a pass thrown to him all year. And this week facing the Eagles, who are ranked 26th overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing tight ends, he has another good matchup. We all know Peyton loves throwing to his tight end, and even without Dallas Clark, Manning seems to have confidence in Tamme. You should have confidence too. I picked him up in one of my leagues and I’m starting him this week for sure.
TE’s I hate:
Tony Moeaki (Kansas City Chiefs) (tied for 40th in targets): Although the Raiders defense isn’t fantastic against the tight end, by now you should know that the Chiefs are going to run most every down, leaving few targets to be spread around. This most likely leaves Moeaki on the outside looking in fantasy wise, so he’s definitely not a good play at all this week.
Dustin Keller (New York Jets) (tied for 26th in targets): After a massive first 3 weeks, Keller has finally come back down to earth. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4 and in facing a Detroit Lions defense ranked 5th in giving up fantasy points to opposing tight ends, I don’t see him breaking the drought and finding the endzone this week. Plus, with Santonio Holmes now in the lineup, Keller’s Targets have decreased since week 4. If he even makes it to 50 yards this week, count me as shocked.
Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles) (tied for 30th in targets): With Kolb at the helm Celek had some pretty ok weeks, scoring a touchdown in both weeks 4 and 5. Now with Vick set to return as the starter, I’d look for the little production he had to disappear. This is very disappointing, as we all thought that Celek would have a fantastic year. Unfortunately a lot of us have been burned (you can count me amongst those people who were). So normally you probably aren’t playing Celek, but definitely not against the Colts, who are ranked #1 overall in giving up fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
As always, any questions, feel free to e-mail mattymccall@gmail.com or post a comment.
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