"Random Musings About Football" Week 12

Hopefully you enjoyed last week’s Random Musing topic, the Fantasy Football Playoffs.  This week I’d like to take a deeper look at what I think is the most important factor to winning your league championship; Matchups. I’ll be going through all 32 teams, listing who they play in Weeks 14 – 17, and including my opinion about what that schedule provides for each team when it counts the most:  In the Fantasy Football Playoffs.   

If you have any questions or wish to provide an opinion of your own, feel free to comment at the end of the post.  Or if you want, feel free to e-mail mattymccall@gmail.com and I’ll respond to your e-mail as soon as possible. 

To the matchups!!!!

Team Matchups:

1.        Atlanta Falcons:  Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers

·         The Falcons have Carolina twice, although it’s possible that when they face Carolina in the final week of the season they have their playoff spot clinched (possibly homefield) and play their starters (Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White) sparingly.  Nonetheless, the Falcons also have Seattle in Week 15.  So 3 out of the 4 weeks are solid.

2.       Arizona Cardinals:  Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers

·         Great matchups for the Cardinals passing game.  Only problem being of course that the Cardinals don’t have a quarterback who can throw the ball.  I’d look for maybe a good week against Carolina, but even that’s pushing it.  Of course if you have Larry Fitzgerald, it’s hard to sit him, as recently he’s been putting the ball in the end zone and getting close to 100 yards a game.  Overall though, due to lack of a quarterback and running game, the Cardinals can’t take advantage of the favorable matchups.

3.       Baltimore Ravens:  Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals

·         If you’re league starts the playoffs in Week 14, I hope you have a couple of Ravens on the roster, as they play one of the worst defenses all around in the Houston Texans.  After that though, the matchups get harder (Cleveland is a sneaky good defense) until the final week of the season when they get a Bengals team that won’t be playing for anything but pride (and they may not even have that if they can’t win a few games leading up to that).

4.       Buffalo Bills:  Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets

·         The Browns and the Jets will be tough, but the Dolphins and Patriots provide an excellent opportunity for Fitzpatrick, Steve Johnson, Lee Evans, and Fred Jackson to put up huge numbers.  It’s often players like these guys, who play hard at the end of the season, regardless if they have no chance of making the playoffs that put up huge fantasy days.

5.       Carolina Panthers: Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons

·         DeAngelo Williams on Injured Reserve, Jonathan Stewart concussed, crappy quarterback play, and you have a recipe for probably the worst fantasy team out there.  Add to that the fact that they play Atlanta twice and Pittsburgh in 3 out of the final 4 weeks, and you really really want to stay away from them.  The only consideration at this point would be Mike Goodson, and with the matchups, it doesn’t even look good for him.

6.       Chicago Bears:  New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers

·         Against the Patriots, good matchup for Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Johnny Knox.  Against the Vikings, Cutler and Knox.  Against the Jets and Packers, don’t even think about it.

7.       Cincinnati Bengals:  Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens

·         An extremely tough schedule coming down the stretch as far as the run game goes, but against the Steelers and Ravens, Owens and Ochocinco are viable options.

8.       Cleveland Browns:  Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers

·         You’re playing Peyton Hillis regardless of the matchup, even against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Hillis as earned the respect.  As far as the rest of the Browns, you really aren’t looking at anyone else besides Benjamin Watson.

9.       Dallas Cowboys:  Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles

·         After the last two weeks, it seems like maybe the Cowboys finally have things figured out.   Defense is playing better, and the offense isn’t turning the ball over every time you look up from checking your fantasy scores.  If you’re struggling for a QB, check out Tony Romo, as he is only 3 weeks away from returning to action, just in time for the fantasy playoffs.   I’ve noticed myself that’s lot of people have dropped Romo, so he might be a good pickup if your starter has bad matchups.  And of course, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Felix Jones are extremely good options as well.

10.   Denver Broncos:  Arizona Cardinals, Oakland Raiders, Houston Texans, San Diego Chargers

·         You have to love Kyle Orton’s chances against the Cardinals, Raiders, and especially the Texans.  As witnessed on Monday Night Football this week, Orton is not a good start against the Chargers.  For the first three weeks of the fantasy playoffs though, Orton and Brandon Lloyd are definite starts if you own them and don’t have better options, Jabar Gaffney and and Eddie Royal are good flex players, and Knowshon Moreno will be a definite solid #2 running back.

11.   Detroit Lions:  Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings

·         If you haven’t figure it out yet, the Detroit Lions love to throw the ball.  Bad for them that the Packers defense is good every which way, but good that they have decent matches every week after that.  Calvin Johnson is a must start every week regardless of the matchup, but in Weeks 15-17, I’d take a look at Shaun Hill if you don’t have a better option, and Nate Burleson is worth a look as a third receiver or a flex.

12.   Green Bay Packers:  Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Chicago Bears

·         No brainer with Aaron Rodgers, you’re playing him.  Same goes for Greg Jennings.  As for the other players, I like James Jones against the Patriots and the Bears as a #3 receiver or flex.  If Donald Driver becomes 100% healthy, I like him in place of James Jones.  And in the final two weeks of the season, barring the Packers resting anyone, the defense has great matchups against the Giants and Bears, whose quarterbacks have been known to throw an interception or two in a game.

13.   Houston Texans:  Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars

·         You’re playing Andre Johnson every week, even though Schaub is not who he once was.  Foster has been a beast this year, and I don’t see that changing the rest of the year, even against the Baltimore Ravens.

14.   Indianapolis Colts:  Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans

·         Yeah, you’re playing Manning and Wayne.  Those are givens.  But with Collie having head problems, Garcon’s value steps up a bit along with tight end Jacob Tamme.  At this point, Tamme should be a must start every week if you have him.  And the matchups the last 4 weeks of the season are very good.

15.   Jacksonville Jaguars:  Oakland Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, Houston Texans

·         Garrard has been playing very well of late, and with 4 good matchups to end the season, you could see big numbers from Garrard.  His targets for those big numbers of course will be Mike Sims-Walker (a borderline #2, but solid #3 receiver), Mike Thomas (more of a #3 receiver when Sims-Walker is healthy and a definite flex), and Marcedes Lewis (almost a must start at TE if you have him).  And last but certainly not least, Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run all over each team like he’s playing a video game.

16.   Kansas City Chiefs:  San Diego Chargers, St. Louis Rams, Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders

·         I am as shocked as everyone else is that Dwayne Bowe is having the season he is, and it seems unlikely that it will stop, regardless of the matchup.  You’re not playing Matt Cassel ever.  Jamaal Charles is a must start if you own him regardless of the matchup as well because of his game breaking ability.  And with the Chiefs fighting for a playoff spot, look for them not to be benching their players as well.

17.   Miami Dolphins:  New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots

·         No, you’re not starting Tyler Thigpen, so don’t even give it a consideration.  However, you do have to look at Davone Bess and especially Brian Hartline as solid flex options.  If Brandon Marshall is healthy, it’s possible he could hit it big the final three weeks of the season.

18.   Minnesota Vikings:  New York Giants, Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions

·         Adrian Peterson is a fixture in the starting lineup, so if you’re considering benching him for some reason, check yourself into your local insane asylum.  But the interesting thing about the Vikings will be how they respond to the firing of Brad Childress and the stepping in of Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazor as head coach.  I think they’ll be a motivated team, so look for some good offense finally, with Brett Favre leading that charge.  That being said, you’re still not starting him, because his inconsistency demands it.  But Percy Harvin has been your best receiver so far this year, so you should play him against all teams, along with Sidney Rice, unless you have better options.

19.   New England Patriots:  Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins

·         Brady = start against all teams, although he may struggle against Green bay in Week 15.  Aaron Hernandez, start him every week if you have him, as most likely you don’t have a better option at tight end.  But the other three weeks, you have to like Welker as a #2 receiver, Deion Branch as a flex, The Law Firm BenJarvus Green-Ellis as a #2 back (although keep an eye on Fred Taylor, as if he’s healthy enough to play, Ellis’s production will definitely dip and he’ll turn into a flex), and Danny Woodhead is a flex. 

20.   New Orleans Saints:  St. Louis Rams, Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

·         Drew Brees is a given.  Colston is a given, especially given his recent production.  Lance Moore and Meachem are good flex players, with Moore being a solid #3 receiver.  As long as Shockey is hurt, Jimmy Graham is worth a good luck if you don’t have any other tight end options.  As for running back, with the return of Reggie Bush, Chris Ivory’s carries will decrease, making him a flex option along with Bush.  Depending how they use Bush over the next two weeks, he may ascend to #2 running back status.

21.   New York Giants:  Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins

·         If Nicks is healthy, he’s one of the best receivers out there along with Steve Smith, who could be healthy for the fantasy playoffs.  Bradshaw is a #1 running back unless you have two guys consistently ranked higher than him somewhere in your lineup.  The only question mark is Eli Manning, but the only real bad matchup occurs against the Packers in week 16.  Keep an eye on the Giants D/ST against the Redskins in the last week of the season.

22.   New York Jets:  Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, Buffalo Bills

·         It appears Mark Sanchez is now the real deal, although it does seem to take OT to get good fantasy production out of him.  I like every week for him, even against the Steelers, whose pass defense is way overrated.  LT and Shonn Greene are now basically flex options, as they are splitting the carries about 50/50.  Braylon Edwards is a borderline #2, definite #3 receiver.  Holmes is a legit #2 receiver, who appears to be making a run for consideration as a #1 in any fantasy lineup.  I like the D/ST against all teams.

23.   Oakland Raiders:  Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs

·         Campbell has good matchups, but it doesn’t matter as you’re not playing him anyways.  You’re staying away from the receivers, as they are extremely inconsistent week in and week out.  So that leaves Zach Miller at TE, who if healthy by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, is a top 5 tight end every week, and Darren McFadden.  McFadden has great matchups the rest of the year, so play him if you got him.

24.   Philadelphia Eagles:  Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys

·         Vick has great matchups throughout the fantasy playoffs, and even if he didn’t, it wouldn’t matter, as his dynamic ability transcends any defense.  With Vick’s production will also come the production of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.  Jackson is toeing the line between #1 and #2 receiver, while Maclin is a definite #2.  And you have to playLeSean McCoy every week except for week 16 against a typically stingy Vikings run defense.  Oh, notice the Eagles play Dallas twice, whose defense has been pathetic all year.

25.   Pittsburgh Steelers:  Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns

·         You have to love Mike Wallace.  He’s worth at least 100 yards and 1 touchdown every game, regardless of the matchup.  Which means don’t less Revis Island scare you in week 15 against the New York Jets.  Play Wallace every week.  And the same can be said about Ben Roethlisberger.  If he’s your starter, you should be confident.  Hines Ward is a #3 receiver.  Rashard Mendenhall has good matchups every week except against the Jets, but more likely than not you don’t have a better option, so you’re playing him against the Jets anyways.  Have to like all Steelers against Carolina and like the Defenses against the Bengals and Panthers. 

26.   San Diego Chargers:  Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos

·         Philip Rivers is probably the best quarterback in the league this side of Michael Vick at the moment, so that’s a no-brainer, and his matchups are fantastic to help you out.  If Mathews stays injured, Tolbert is a solid #2 back.  At receiver, Vincent Jackson returns this week, so we’ll know what he will be brining to the fantasy playoffs by the time they start, but I predict he’ll be a fantasy all star the last part of the season.  Don’t sleep on Malcolm Floyd either, who will get less coverage rolled his way with the return of Jackson.  Darren Sproles is a fantastic flex play as always and if Antonio Gates is healthy enough to play, well, I don’t think you need me to tell you that you have to play him.

27.   San Francisco 49ers:  Seattle Seahawks, San Diego Chargers, St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals

·         Two words.  Frank Gore.  That’s about all the Niners have going for them, although they do have good matchups against the Seahawks and Cardinals.  Vernon Davis has disappeared, as somehow Delanie Walker has turned into Troy Smith’s favorite receiver/tight end, but if you have Davis, you’re playing him, as you have to think he’ll get his touches at some point.

28.   Seattle Seahawks:  San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams

·         Lynch and Forsett are flex plays, as the split in carries cancels out #2 running back production.  You’re never starting Matt Hasselbeck.  I said to drop John Carlson about 4 weeks ago, so hopefully you did, as he is basically ignored in the offense now.  So you’re best fantasy option is Mike Williams, who is a definite #2 receiver.  Never thought I would ever say those words ever.

29.   St. Louis Rams:  New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks

·         Of course you’re playing Steven Jackson as your #1 or #2 back depending on who else is on your roster regardless of the matchup, but fortunately the Rams do have okay matchups that he should produce.  You’re not playing Bradford, as he doesn’t have enough weapons on the receiving end.  But the weapons he does have are Danny Amendola (a #3 receiver and definite flex play) and Brandon Gibson (flex play).

30.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints

·         Josh Freeman has very good matchups except the Saints, so he may be worth a look if you’re struggling for  QB options, or your starting QB gets injured.  Of course you love Mike Williams, as he’s a legit #2 fantasy receiver, with tremendous #1 potential.  LeGarrette Blount is putting up solid #2 running back numbers (I’ve been a beneficiary myself).  As for Kellen Winslow, if you don’t have a better option, I suppose you could do worse, but I wouldn’t expect much from him.  Oh, and Cadillac Williams is a potential flex play if he gets enough touches.

31.   Tennessee Titans:  Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts

·         Well, Vince Young out for the rest of the season (and I think if Jeff Fisher gets his way, the rest of his career), Kerry Collins has an injured calf, which makes rookie 6^th round draft choice Rusty Smith from Florida Atlantic the default starter.  So stay away from Rusty Smith.  Unfortunately this probably means a downgrade in Nate Washington and Bo Scaife, and definitely Randy Moss, who was basically non-existent anyways.  The problem now is what happens to Chris Johnson.  And what happens is most likely that he faces 8 in the box.  But fortunately, he faces an extremely favorable schedule as he gets to face some of the worst run defenses in the league in the Colt and Texans.

32.   Washington Redskins:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants

·         The running back situation is up in arms because of injury, leaving Keiland Williams as the de facto #1 back.  But once Portis is healthy, he’ll be the #1 guy again, so keep your eye on that for the fantasy playoffs.  You’re probably not starting Donovan McNabb unless you are forced to.  You have to like Santana Moss as a #2 receiver.  Anthony Armstrong is a strong (no pun intended with his last name) flex option.  Chris Cooley is alive I think, but you haven’t heard much from him.  But if the ball is thrown his way, he’s a top ten tight end.