The bye weeks are finally over and you can all breathe a sigh of relief if you managed to make it through weeks 4 through 10 fairly unscathed as far as your record goes. If you didn’t, and now you are on the outside looking in as far as your league playoffs are concerned, don’t give up. One of my fantasy commandments states that you never mail in your season. I’m sitting at 4-6, no chance in making the playoffs, but by no means am I going to give up or throw the towel in on the season. In the immortal words of Herm Edwards: “You play to win the game.”
So listen to Herm and play every week like your 0-0. Your league members deserve the most out of you and listen, no one likes a quitter, especially the guy/girl fighting for a playoff spot that sees you’re playing your scrubs against an opponent that he/she needs to lose, thus guaranteeing a win to said opponent. There’s a lot of money on the line out there, so don’t screw someone else because you’re a sore loser and your pride is hurt
I will now step down of my soapbox and tell you that the “In a Pinch” column will no longer be seen on the site until bye weeks start up again in the 2011-2012 season. It makes no sense to call a column “in a pinch” if you’re not looking to replace anyone, in a pinch. So if you’re not sure who to start, take a look at the weekly rankings on Wednesday and also the Love/Hate column on Thursday. Both should help you make a decision on who to start or who to sit.
So I’m going to change the name of the weekly Tuesday column to “Random Musings About Football.” Basically, it’s whatever the hell I feel like saying about football, be it real or fantasy. So if you don’t like it, please let me know, and I’ll change it up to something else.
Now on to the inaugural column!
This week’s topic: Fantasy Playoffs
If you’re lucky enough to be way ahead in your league (which I am not, as I’m currently fighting tooth and nail to get a wild card berth), or you feel extremely good about your chances of making the fantasy playoffs, it’s time to start looking ahead to those weeks, which in most leagues are weeks 15, 16, and 17.
Now don’t get cocky and think that since you’re 9-1, 8-2, 7-3, or 6-4, that your shit doesn’t stink. Look deeply at your roster. Look to see if you have any holes. Maybe your 3rd or 4th string running back isn’t as strong as you want. Maybe one of your receivers has some extremely bad matchups down the stretch. Maybe your backup quarterback, who you think you don’t need any more since the bye weeks are over, may be faced to become your starter in the championship game due to an injury.
This leads me to another one of my commandments: BE PREPARED.
Don’t get complacent and think that you can ride your lineup all the way to the championship. Be prepared for that freak injury to your star players by making sure the backups you have can step in and have at least 80% of the production of your starter or at least has the potential to produce their “one great game of the year.” That way you at least have a chance and can make your playoff run competitive.
Here is what I take into consideration when preparing for the fantasy playoffs:
I start preparing for the fantasy playoffs Week 1. The moment my draft has completed I immediately scope out the free agents, seeing if a player I thought would get drafted didn’t and would be a better option than a player currently on my roster. And every week of the season I constantly peruse the free agent lists, always seeing if someone better is available. You would be surprised how many people drop players during bye weeks that they don’t really want to drop.
Which leads me to another of my commandments: DON’T BE AFRAID TO LOSE ONE WEEK. Most fantasy owners are afraid to lose one week, so they drop their 2nd or 3rd receiver/running back, 2nd TE, or backup QB in order to clear a roster spot to pick up someone to fill in just for one week. They don’t really want to drop that player, as they know that player has played well so far and has the potential to put up good numbers the rest of the season.
But fantasy owners become scared. They think they have to win every single week. And I understand that, I go into each season wanting to go undefeated. But you have to realize that fantasy football is controlled by forces that are not your own. Things happen during a season that out of your control. For example, there are injuries, coach’s decisions to go from a one back system to a two back system, coach’s decision to go from a running attack to a passing attack, suspensions, etc. There are just so many things that can happen during the course of the season that can make you lose a week.
So fantasy owners get scared of that one loss and make rash decisions. They don’t think long term, instead thinking, “I have to win this week. I have to beat this guy. I can’t lose.” Fact of the matter is that one week does not make the season. Just like in the NFL, the season is long, so don’t be afraid to lose one week in order to keep that guy who you feel is poised to break out at any time, or that guy who is on a hot streak.
But I digress completely from what I was saying. Back to SCARED OWNERS.
Those owners that drop their good players in order to pick up one guy for one week, you need to pick them up if you have the roster space. You need to be what I call a “Fantasy Vulture.” So all season long, watch the free agent list. Often times those moves you make in the first few weeks of the season will often pay dividend come the fantasy playoffs.
Beyond being a Fantasy vulture, in order to set yourself up for a successful playoff run, you also need to look at matchups. Check out who your players are matched up against during the playoffs. If they have bad matchups, maybe you play your 3rd or 4th options if they are solid players with great matchups.
For example: Maybe your 2nd receiver is playing the Saints during the fantasy playoffs. The Saints are currently ranked #1 in giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so they are a horrible matchup. On the other hand, your #3 receiver is playing Jacksonville Jaguars that week, which are ranked #32 in giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so they are a fantastic matchup.
So you can see that it’s not always prudent to play with who got you there. Don’t be afraid to sit that #2 guy if he has a bad matchup. And conversely, don’t be afraid to start that #3 or #4 guy if he has a great matchup. You have to play the matchups if you want to win in the fantasy playoffs.
To to wrap this long article up, here’s what you need to do to win the “Ship.” Be a “Fantasy Vulture” from week one, but if you haven’t, start now. And two, don’t be afraid to play the matchups. The fantasy owner who follows those two tips should be in great shape to make a solid run at winning it all.
No comments:
Post a Comment