So are you in the “Ship?” Or at least in the semifinal round of the fantasy playoffs? If so, contragtulations. Unfortunately this year I myself did not end up in the playoffs for the first year ever. I ended up missing out by the slimmest of margins, 1.3 points. But this article isn’t about me, it’s about how I can help you win your championship game or make it to your championship. With that thought in mind, let’s get right down to it.
For this article, the idea is simple. I’ll take a look at each team and list the players who can be depended upon, and if I feel ambitious, maybe even some logic behind why I think they’re in for a good week.
Arizona Cardinals: So you’re worried about John Skelton’s impact on Larry Fitzgerald. Don’t be. Larry Fitzgerald has been doing just fine week in and week out, with over a hundred yards in Week 15 against the Carolina Panthers. Against an atrocious Dallas pass defense, you can count on Larry again. On that note, that means Steve Breaston would be a good flex option along with Tim Hightower. But I’d bench Beanie Wells for sure.
Atlanta Falcons: Regardless of the matchup, you’re going to play Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, although I wouldn’t expect huge games out of Ryan or White, as the Saints defense is tough against the pass, except for the TE.
Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are obvious starts, especially after Ray Rice’s performance in Week 15. But the problem with Baltimore is that they have too many receivers, which often leaves Boldin and Mason trading every week who has a good game. But if you have to start one, I’d go with Boldin, as he had 142 yards receiving the first time around against Cleveland. Also, keep an eye on the injury report, as Todd Heap is looking like he’s going to start this Sunday.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills face the New England Patriots in Week 16, whose defense in my opinion is overrated. Just look at what Matt Flynn, a guy making his first start in the league, was able to do. So if Flynn can carve up the Patriots, Ryan Fitzpatrick, a proven commodity, certainly can as well, so I’d start him if you don’t have a better option. Steve Johnson is a must start no matter what every week now, and the same almost can be said for Fred Jackson. So Fitzpatrick, Johnson, and Jackson are the guys to place this week for the Bills.
Carolina Panthers: The only play you have on a week in and week out basis is Jonathan Stewart, but unfortunately this week he faces the best run defense in the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers. So if you have a better option(s) at running back than Stewart, play those guys, otherwise you’re going to have to roll the dice.
Chicago Bears: The Bears have clinched their division, which means that they are now fighting for homefield advantage and a first round bye. So you shouldn’t have to worry about the Bears sitting any of their starters, not that it makes that much difference, as the Bears starters are rather inconsistent. Which means in facing the Jets defense in Week 16, I wouldn’t count on much of anything, particularly from Matt Forte and the Bears running game. You’re best option would be the Bears pass game, which means you’re starting Jay Cutler unless you have a better option, and Johnny Knox would make a solid flex option. Other than those two guys, there really is no one else unless you consider Greg Olsen, who is basically a miss every week, but he’s got the talent if they ever decide to use him.
Cincinnati Bengals: Well TO is out the rest of the season, meaning an upgrade for Ochocinco, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham in the passing game. This is good news for Jermaine Gresham, as San Diego is historically bad against the TE, and this year is no different. I could certainly see a better than average game from Gresham. As for the other receivers, I wouldn’t expect too much, as the Chargers pass defenses is one of the top 2 in the league. Which means Cincinnati should focus more on the running game with Cedric Benson. So Benson and Gresham should be the guys to look for this week.
Cleveland Browns: 1st time around against the Baltimore Ravens, Peyton Hills ran for 144 yards, and while the Ravens run defense has improved much sense then, Hillis is still a must start. Beyond Hillis, your only other option is Benjamin Watson, who has been on a tear the last two weeks. Unfortunately he comes up against a Ravens defense that gives up the 7th least fantasy points to opposing TEs. But I still feel that Watson is a viable option, particularly if you don’t have anyone better to play on your team.
Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo has been put on IR for the last two weeks of the season, so you Kitna owners no longer have to worry about Romo reclaiming his starting roll. That’s great news, as Kitna has been playing particularly well, which means I recommend him as a solid start, even though Arizona’s defense is top 10 against QBs and WRs. Speaking of injured reserve, Roy Williams is done for the season as well, meaning that beyond Miles Austin and Jason Witten, there aren’t many other receivers except for Sam Hurd and Martellus Bennett. Expect another big game from Witten and maybe even one from Austin. The real winner this week for Dallas should be Felix Jones, as the Arizona Cardinals are in the bottom two in giving up fantasy points to running backs. Jones should have a monster game and I could even see backup Tashard Choice getting 60 yards and a score, making him a solid flex option.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos face the Houston Texans this week, who are just bad against everyone, meaning Tim Tebow gets a break in his second career start. Nonetheless, I’m not sold on Tebow’s throwing ability, but you should see him run for a score or two. And speaking of running, Knowshon Moreno is the Bronco to own this week. As for Brandon Lloyd, he’s not a sure thing without Kyle Orton, but if you’re going to use a Bronco’s receiver, clearly he’s the guy, as Tebow seemed the most confident in him.
Detroit Lions: The Lions draw the Miami Dolphins in Week 16, who are extremely solid on every aspect of their defense, the exception being against WR, but they’re still top 15 nonetheless. So this means that although Maurice Morris made it to 100 yards in Week 15, he’s not likely to even sniff that this week. Which also means that Jahvid Best isn’t an option either. The only options are Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Brandon Pettigrew, but the chances are only of those three score.
Green Bay Packers: The Packers run game looked good this past week against the New England Patriots, but the New York Giants run defense is much better, being ranked number 5th in the league. So you can count Jackson out as a starter, downgrading him to a flex RB. However, Aaron Rodgers should be returning, although after Matt Flynn’s performance, it appears it doesn’t matter who is throwing the ball. Regardless, the return of Aaron Rodgers is good for those who own him, and means that Greg Jennings should get a slight upgrade.
Houston Texans: Just as with their opponent, the Denver Broncos, they luck out this week in facing an equally bad defense. Everyone is an option this week, with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, and Owen Daniels starters, and Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter as flex options. The game should be a shootout, with the Texans having the advantage on the offensive side for sure. This is a great fantasy game.
Indianapolis Colts: So Austin Collie comes back, plays terrific, but unfortunately suffers another concussion. I can certainly see this being the end of the season for him, especially if the Colts somehow lose the final two games of the season and end up out of the playoffs. But even without Collie, there are still plenty of options in Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, and Jacob Tamme, and with Peyton Manning throwing the ball to them, it doesn’t matter what defense is playing against them, even one ranked in the top 5 against WRs. The real wild card here is Donald Brown. The Oakland Raiders run defense is extremely bad, which would bode well for Brown, particularly after the game he had in Week 15. So Brown should be a solid second back, while Wayne and Tamme are starts and Garcon is a flex option.
Jacksonville Jaguars: In the hunt for the playoffs, the Jaguars draw a bad defense in the Washington Redskins, meaning that offensively they certainly have a chance to put up big numbers. The beneficiary is everyone. You’re obviously starting Maurice Jones-Drew. That’s a no-brainer. And Marcedes Lewis is a legit TE option in the league now, so you’re playing him. But what to do about Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas? Mike Sims-Walker appears to be the guy you start if you don’t have better receiver options, and Mike Thomas is just a flex. Speaking of flexes, over the last few weeks, Rashad Jennings has been putting up very good numbers, making him a solid flex option at this point.
Kansas City Chiefs: With another week to recover from his appendectomy, Matt Cassel should be 100% for sure, although he seemed to not be affected at all against the Rams. So if you’ve been relying on him as of late, you should be able to rely on him once again. Clearly, if you own Bowe, you play him, and forget about all other receivers. The opponent this week is the Tennessee Titans, who are ranked 25th in giving up fantasy points to TEs, meaning Moeaki is a solid option this week. But of course, the one guy in the Chiefs offense you can count on is Jamaal Charles. With the Titans run defense just outside the top 15, ranked at 17, that means they are quite susceptible to giving up yards and scores. This makes Thomas Jones a viable flex option.
Miami Dolphins: The Detroit Lions are bad at every facet of defense except for the TE. This means, you’re starting Brandon Marshall, and that’s the only start, unless you are in a league that starts 3 receivers, which then means you are absolutely starting Davone Bess if you own him. But even with Lions being bad against the run, it’s hard to have much confidence in starting Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams, unless you are in a league that starts 3 backs. If you aren’t in a league like that, I’d play either at the flex.
Minnesota Vikings: I think we’ve finally seen the last of Brett Favre, which means rookie Joe Webb is going to get his first start of the year, unless Favre pulls, well, a Favre, and decides to play regardless of his injuries. Regardless who starts, I don’t think you can count on any of the wide receivers; meaning Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are only flex options. Keep an eye on Adrian Peterson’s injury status as well, cause if he can’t play, Toby Gerhart should be a viable option against a so-so Eagles run defense. The main thing about the Vikings is that you shouldn’t play their D/ST, as they are facing Michael Vick, who has been absolutely destroying defenses all season.
New England Patriots: The Patriots are playing the Buffalo Bills, an extremely bad defense, who is only good against wide receivers, but in facing Tom Brady, you can throw that ranking out the window. Bottom line, you play everyone if you have a spot for them. You start Brady, the Law Firm BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Aaron Hernandez, and Deion Branch. And of course, you flex Danny Woodhead as should be doing every week.
New Orleans Saints: Last time around against the Atlanta Falcons, Drew Brees threw for 365 yards and Lance Moore caught 149 of those yards. And nothing has changed since Week 3 as far as the pass defense, so you can expect good games from Colston, Moore, and Jimmy Graham, who is the newest weapon for Drew Brees. But as for the running game of the Saints, I don’t think it matters whether it’s Bush, Ivory, or Thomas running the ball. The Falcons run defense has been good all year, and should continue to be so. But if forced to choose one, I’d go with Pierre Thomas, as he tends to receive the bulk of the carries and is very good on the screen game.
New York Giants: The Giants face the Green Bay Packers in Week 16, needing a victory to secure them a playoff spot and regain some confidence after they blew a certain victory against the Eagles. Problem is that Green Bay needs to beat the Giants to get one as well, so this should be a hotly contested game, full of high emotion. On top of that emotion, Green Bay brings a defense that is top 5 against every position except for the TE, where they are ranked 30th in giving up fantasy points. This bodes extremely well for Kevin Boss, which means if you own him, you start him, especially if you don’t have a better option. As for the rest of the team, I wouldn’t be too confident in Brandon Jacobs, and would feel better about Ahmad Bradshaw. However, neither is certain to have a great game. As for Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, you can expect those two to see a reduction in performance, but with Nicks having the better day.
New York Jets: The Jets are sure to be feeling some confidence after the huge win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, but now they face another tough defense in the Chicago Bears, one who is much better against the pass. Nonetheless, if you own any of the Jets players, and have been starting them all year, you’re sure not going to stop now. The only worry I have would be for Braylon Edwards. He may have had 100 yards against the Steelers, but that’s not going to happen against the Bears. He’s a flex at best. But you’re definitely starting LaDaianian Tomlinson and Santonio Holmes if you have them. And if Keller is you’re only option at TE, well good luck. I wouldn’t expect much from him unfortunately.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are back to .500 and are still in the playoff hunt, making them hungry to beat a good team in the Indianapolis Colts. This is a good matchup offensively for the Raiders, as their strength is the run game and the weakness of the Colt’s defense is against the run. This bodes extremely well for Darren McFadden, who is most likely the only start this week for the Raiders, unless Zach Miller is your only option at TE. Other than those two guys, there isn’t even anyone else worthy of a flex.
Philadelphia Eagles: Let’s list the obvious starters; Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy. Brent Celek you say? Yeah, sure, he had a 65 yard touchdown reception, but that’s the lone highlight of the year. You aren’t starting him against the Vikings. However, Jackson and Maclin should be in for huge games, with LeSean McCoy having a good game via the pass but only an average on via the run.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Panthers are very very good against in their pass defense, but just god awful in their run defense. This means Rashard Mendenhall should have a monster game, so if you own him, your chances of winning your league championship are very good. But even with the extremely good pass defense, I wouldn’t be too worried about what will happen to Roethlisberger. He should be just fine. Same goes for Mike Wallace, as you can basically count him for 100 yards every game, usually with a touchdown. Who you have to be concerned about is Hines Ward. He’s now the second target on the team, with Emmanuel Sanders inching up even on that. So if you own Hines Ward, I’d think about benching him this week, especially if you have better options.
San Diego Chargers: The Cincinnati Bengals defense has fallen very far since last year, making this a extremely good matchup for the Chargers. Let’s make this simple then: You start Rivers, Jackson, Floyd, and Tolbert. You flex Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. And of special note, TE Antonio Gates isn’t expected back until the playoffs, assuming San Diego draws a wild card.
San Francisco 49ers: Somehow the 49ers forgot that the San Diego Chargers are bad against the TE, as Vernon Davis only had 1 target that resulted in 1 catch for 4 yards. For those of you who own Vernon Davis, he may have killed your fantasy chances, but if he didn’t, I hope that 49ers have learned their lesson and will look Davis’s way more often this week against the St. Louis Rams, even though they are 6th best against the TE. As for other options, Westbrook, Dixon, Crabtree, and Josh Morgan are all good flex plays.
Seattle Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck will be the starter this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is good news for those of you who own Mike Williams, had a good showing in his first action in a couple of weeks, with 8 catches for 66 yards. The Tampa Bay pass defense is not very good, especially without their best corner in Aqib Talib. So Williams should be in for another good week, making him worth a start. Also, in the first time all season, I’m saying Marshawn Lynch is a good start as well since the Buccaneers are 26th worst in the league against the run. You easily could see a touchdown or two from him.
St. Louis Rams: Other than Stephen Jackson, you aren’t starting anyone, which makes you wonder how the Rams are still in the hunt of their division, regardless if it’s the weak NFC West or not. But they’re still around because they have great heart and a good defense. But a great heart doesn’t earn you points in the fantasy world, making Jackson you’re only start and leaving Danny Amendola as a flex. Other than that, forget about everyone else.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers are fighting for a wild card playoff spot, which is surprising, considering not much was expected of them this year. But the offense has come a long way very quickly, thanks to Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and LeGarette Blount. Of those 3, Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blounts are must starts, with Josh Freeman being a very good start as well if you don’t have a better option. As for Kellen Winslow, I would not feel good about starting him as the Seahawks are 8th best against the TE, and if I had a better option I would good with that.
Tennessee Titans: I had a real good feeling about Kenny Britt last week, and I do again this week. The Kansas City Chiefs, the week 16 opponent for the Titans, are 20th best , which means Britt should be in for a great game, and Nate Washington would be a good flex play. And of course you’re playing Chris Johnson.
Washington Redskins: The Redskins QB situation is in utter chaos, but that doesn’t seem to matter, as Rex Grossman had the best game for QBs in week 15. With the Jaguars being in the bottom of the league against all 4 positions, everyone is in play. So if you own Santana Moss, start him. If you own Anthony Armstrong, flex him or start him if you are in a league that starts 3 receivers. Ryan Torain, start him. Chris Cooley, start him. Everyone should have an extremely good game.
No comments:
Post a Comment