Week 6 Love/Hate

This is the first addition of what I hope becomes a weekly Thursday column entitled Love/Hate.  Matthew Berry, who works for ESPN, does a weekly article like this as well, which is where I got the idea from, but in no way has his column influenced mine.  In fact, I haven't even read his yet this week.  So take from this what you will, but these are players I expect to perform well or underwhelm this week.  Hope you enjoy Love/Hate!

QB’s that I love this week not named Peyton Manning:

Eli Manning (New York Giants):  Eli is facing the Detroit Lions pass defense, which is ranked 21st in points given up to opposing fantasy quarterbacks.  With Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith catching everything thrown their way, this week looks good for Eli.  I have Eli as my third ranked QB this week.

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers):  See Eli Manning, but with different receiving targets.  Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates are catching everything thrown to them.  St. Louis ranks 13th in points given up to opposing fantasy quarterbacks, and the quarterbacks they have faced in achieving that ranking were Derek Anderson, Jason Campbell, Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, and Shaun Hill.  Not exactly top 10 quarterbacks, and Donovan McNabb is the only one you see ranked within the Top 15 week in and week out.  So for the Rams to have a ranking in the top 15 is misleading.  Rivers is in for another big day.

Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys):  Romo is putting up huge numbers week in and week out, and I don’t see that changing, even though Minnesota is currently ranked 7th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.  With Miles Austin catching almost everything thrown his way, Roy Williams looking everything like the receiver the Cowboys traded for, another week of practice with Dez Bryant, and the steady hands of Witten, Romo is poised to keep up his production, especially against what I consider an overrated secondary in Minnesota.

Kyle Orton (Denver Broncos):  I love me some Kyle Orton this week against the Jets (and every week after this in fact.  Orton is a must start every week.  Lump him in with Manning, Rivers, Romo, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady).  You heard me right, I said I love Kyle Orton against the J E T S, Jets Jets Jets.  But wait, you say they have a great defense?  To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!”  The New York Jets rank 22^nd in points given up to opposing quarterbacks.  That’s right, 22^nd.  It’s shocking I know, when they have Darelle Revis as a shut down corner, and Antonio Cromartie on the other side, a border line shutdown corner.  But Revis is banged up (see the Week 6 Injury Report for details), Cromartie gambles on interceptions too much, and their nickel cornerback, Kyle Wilson (from Boise State), is just that, he is a rookie and is experiencing some growing pains.  With the three headed monster of Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, and Jabar Gaffney, it’s not a good match up for the Jets this week (who also are ranked 29^th in giving up points to opposing fantasy wide receivers).  I have Orton, and I’m starting him.  You should too.

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens):  I love Joe Flacco this week because he’s playing the New England Patriots and their young, inexperienced secondary.  With the experience that Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, and Todd Heap, possess, I expect them to abuse New England.  Looking at the rankings, New England is ranked 29^th overall in points given up to fantasy quarterbacks, so Flacco is sitting pretty this week.

QB’s that I hate:

Any Cleveland Quarterback:  From what it looks , Colt McCoy, 3^rd string rookie quarterback Colt McCoy, will be the starter.  Needless to say, you aren’t playing him even against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense which sucks, let alone the Pittsburgh Steelers.  It’s gonna be Peyton Hillis heavy and often this week.

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers):  If Rodgers plays (and with his concussion, it’s currently a toss up), I still don’t even like him, and that kills me, as the Packers are my favorite team.  He just hasn’t looked like the Rodgers of 2009, and it’s not his fault.  Green Bay has no running game to speak of (if you take away Brandon Jackson’s huge run of 69 yards, he rushes for less than 50 this past week), so this is leading to increased pressure on Rodgers, more hits, and now a concussion.  He’ll probably still end up throwing for over 200 yards and 1 score if he plays, but those aren’t stellar numbers for Rodgers.  If you have a better option, take it.

Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks):  If you’re looking for a bye week fill in, look elsewhere.  Hasselbeck hasn’t been spectacular to say the least, and with the addition of Marshawn Lynch, expect the Seahawks to be run heavy.  Throw in the fact that he’s facing the Chicago defense (ranked 3^rd in points given up to fantasy quarterbacks), and the departure of his best receiver, Deion Branch, and he’s a must sit.  If he’s even on your roster at this point, I would recommend you drop him immediately.

Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams):  Everything was looking great for Bradford and the Rams in this his rookie season.  The Rams were 2 and 2 and playing the Lions with the chance to go to 3 and 2.  He was on a roll, throwing touchdown passes and hooking up with Mark Clayton all over the field.  Now without Clayton, expect Bradford’s production to decrease, particularly since he is going against the #1 ranked defense in points given up to fantasy quarterbacks.

RB’s that I love not named Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson:

Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers):  I may live in Pittsburgh, but I’m definitely not a homer.  I despise the Steelers for so many reasons, but I don’t let that hinder me when considering potential fantasy value.  Now the Browns have a 5th ranked fantasy points against running backs defense, but they did give up 140 yards on 19 carries to Michael Turner, one of the better backs in the league.  Look for Mendenhall to get the ball a lot, as they ease Ben Roethlisberger back into the offense.  I expect at least 20 carries and over 100 yards this week for Mendenhall with a touchdown.

Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs):  Listen, he’s a supreme talent, very Chris Johnson-esque, and is poised to break out for a huge game.  Everyone seems to think that the Houston Texans are really good against the run, but bad against the pass.  Fact is, the Texans defense is bad against both.  So I expect Charles to have at least one big play in either the pass or run game, but his total yards from scrimmage should at least be 175 with one touchdown.  Now, I thought that would happen against Indianapolis, but their defense is much faster than Houston’s.

Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens):  I’m putting Ray Rice in the love category for two reasons.  One, he’s playing a New England Patriots defense that isn’t very good (ranked 21st against fantasy running backs), and two, I have him in one of my leagues, and I need him to tear it up to give me a chance to win.  So, I expect over a hundred yards rushing with 1 touchdown and at least 4 catches for 30 yards this week.

LaDainian Tomlinson (New York Jets):  The aforementioned Ray Rice ran all over Denver, and don’t expect anything different in Week 6 from LaDainian Tomlinson.  Tomlinson is rejuvenated and with Denver’s porous run defense, LT should get at least 100 plus yards with 2 touchdowns.  If LT could get almost 100 yards against Minnesota, imagine what he could do against Denver.

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers):  The Raiders give up the most points when it comes to Fantasy Running Backs (obviously makes them ranked 32), so expect a huge week from Gore in the running and the passing game.  He may get close to 200 total yards from scrimmage with 1 touchdown running and 1 receiving.

Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams):  No Michael Clayton should correlate to more touches for Stephen Jackson.  Expect Jackson to get at least 30 touches in the game and at least 150 total yards, and maybe even more should Jackson break a long one.

Ahmad Bradshaw (New York Giants):  Eli Manning will throw, that’s for sure, and he’ll throw effectively, but don’t forget about Bradshaw.  Bradshaw is putting up solid fantasy numbers, certainly worthy of #2 back, if not a borderline #1.  In facing a Detroit Lions run defense ranked #31 in points given up to fantasy running backs, it’s a great matchup.  I fully expect over 100 yards with one touchdown for Bradshaw.

RB’s I hate:

Jahvid Best (Detroit Lions):  I’m a big Jahvid Best fan.  Loved the Lions moving up into the bottom of the first round to take him, and in a few games this season, he has shown the explosive potential to back up his selection.  But against a Giants defense that has found it’s groove, and with a turf toe injury, I wouldn’t expect much out of Best this week.  He may be able to score a short yard touchdown if they Lions get close enough to the goaline, but I don’t expect many explosive plays this week.  Maybe 80 total yards, but I’m leaning towards no touchdowns.

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles):  Atlanta has proven that they are extremely tough against the run so far this year, limiting Mendenhall to hardly yards in Week 1 barring the 50 yard run in OT, holding Peyton Hillis to under 30 (although Hillis did have a bum thigh).  McCoy may have speed to the outside, unlike Hillis, but Atlant’s defense is predicated on speed, so I wouldn’t look for a big day from McCoy.  Maybe 75 total yards and no touchdowns.

Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis (New England Patriots):  Playing Baltimore’s 4^th ranked fantasy defense against running backs, and even though without Moss they may run a little more, it’s not a good matchup at all, especially considering that the Law Firm of Jarvis Green-Ellis isn’t exactly a great back.  I wouldn’t even flex him this week.

Any and all Green Bay Running Back:  Green Bay should have traded for Marshawn Lynch.  He’s a sight better than Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn combined.  Since Ryan Grant went down, Green Bay’s running game has been just plain ugly.  There is no need to start or flex any of the backs, especially against a halfway decent Miami run defense.

Joseph Addai (Indianapolis Colts):  There are multiple reasons that land Addai on my hate list for week 6.  First, after Peyton’s average performance (average for Manning that is), he is going to be highly motivated, especially since he’s playing on a Sunday night game.  With 3 healthy receivers and Dallas Clark dominating as usual at tight end, I fully expect a lot of throwing and very little running.  Addai may get 12 carries for about 40 yards, and my crystal ball says he might score a touchdown on a draw play from the 10 yard line.  He’s an average flex option at best this week.

WR’s I love not named Reggie Wayne:

Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants) (Tied for 5^th in Targets):  If you weren’t sure about starting Nicks on an every week basis (like I was), I think his week 5 performance against the Texans has to change your mind.  Add to that playing a bad Lions pass defense, and Nicks should have another fantastic week.  Look for at least 8 to 9 catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown.

Andre Johnson (Houston Texans) (Tied for 11^th in Targets):  With another week down, and the ankle healthier, I believe Johnson is ready to have a big fantasy week.  Kansas City is about in the middle of the pack when it comes to giving points up to WRs, so I think it’s time for Johnson to step up and prove why he was the first wide receiver taken in most drafts.  I fully expect over 125 yards with 1 touchdown for AJ.

Malcolm Floyd (San Diego Chargers) (Tied for 14^th in Targets):  Expect Malcolm Floyd’s production to continue, as he faces an improving but still weak pass defense in the St. Louis Rams.  The Rams are ranked 13th in fantasy points given up to receivers, and with Philip Rivers making it look easy, Floyd will be the recipient of many targets, leading to over 100 yards receiving and 1 touchdown.

Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys) (12^th in Targets,even with a bye):  Let’s face it, Monmouth University has given us quite a gift in Miles Austin. ( Does anyone even know where Monmouth is?,  I think New Jersey, but I could be wrong.) He’s a specimen at wide receiver, with amazing hands, great power in coming in and out of breaks and breaking arm tackles, and just out of this world run after the catch ability.  He is a top 5 receiver in fantasy and the real world as well, maybe even a top 3 receiver if Romo keeps looking his way heavy and often (41 targets in 4 games for an average of 10.25 targets/game).  Facing what I think is an overrated Minnesota secondary, and this being a must win game for Dallas, expect Romo to go where he feels comfortable, and that’s Austin.

Jabar Gaffney (Denver Broncos):  See Kyle Orton.  Broncos are a throwing team.  That’s their identity, everyone knows it, but no one can stop them.  I’ve already chronicled why the Jets secondary is not what everyone thinks they are.  And even with Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal getting a lot of targets, in the Broncos offense, there are many to go around.  Gaffney is an extremely solid flex play this week, and if you’re stretched thin at receiver, he’s definitely your #3 guy this week, or your #2, depending on what league you are in.

Dexter McCluster (Kansas City Chiefs) (tied for 38^th in targets):  True, being targeted 14 times in 4 games for an average of 3.5 targets/game, isn’t exactly stellar.  But for the same reason I love Jamaal Charles this week, I love McCluster as well.  They are dynamic with the ball in their hands, always having the potential to score a touchdown on any play.  And with playing the Houston Texans, whose defense is about as bad as Jacksonville’s, maybe even worse, the big play is certainly there.  Add to that the underachievement of Dwayne Bowe, and you have to feel that McCluster’s targets will increase this week, which means an increase in fantasy points.  I love McCluster for at least 105 to 125 total yards with a touchdown this week.    If you have a flex position in your league, put him in.

WR’s I hate:

Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions)(6^th in Targets):  If Calvin Johnson’s shoulder heals to say 90%, I still don’t see it working out well for him.  Shaun Hill won’t have enough time to complete a long pass (which is a majority of his routes) since he will be facing a fearsome New York Giants pass rush, and if Johnson happens to catch one, with the sore shoulder he has, it could put him right back out of the game in a hurry.  Of course you may not have a better option than Johnson, but keep an eye on the injury report to see if he plays.

Greg Jennings and Donald Driver (Green Bay Packers) (tied for 21^st and tied for 18^th in targets respectively):  At the moment, Aaron Rodger’s status is up in the air with a concussion.  Based upon what happened to Jay Cutler, I’d say Rodgers isn’t going to start, and even if he does, I don’t think he has a good week against Miami.  So if Rodgers doesn’t start, you aren’t playing either one of these guys, cause Matt Flynn isn’t throwing deep to Greg Jennings to save your life and he is nowhere near  to being accurate enough to hit Donald Driver on slant or out routes.  If Rodgers does play, I’d go with Driver (I’m benching Jennings and starting Hakeem Nicks, but I’m lucky enough to have Nicks coming off the bench).  The Packers offensive line isn’t giving Rodgers enough time to sit in the pocket and hit the deep one to Jennings, so there would be a lot of quick slants and dump offs to Driver. 

Legedu Nannaee (San Diego Chargers) (tied for 31^st in targets):  In one of the two leagues I am in, I have Naanee.  I picked him up after his good week 1 and have been using him in place of Pierre Garcon.  But that has not paid dividends, and I look for that trend to continue, even against the St. Louis Rams.  If you have Legedu, it’s time to dump him.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Baltimore Ravens) (tied for 32^nd in targets):  Listen, I love his name.  And I can actually spell it without having to look since I’ve typed it so many times, but T.J. is averaging about 4 targets a game.  If you’re still flexing T.J., I think it’s time to give it up.  There are too many other receivers and tight ends on Baltimore that Flacco feels more comfortable throwing to.

Every Seattle receiver (no receiver inside the top 30 of targets, highest is Mike William, tied for 33^rd):  Bears are currently ranked 5^th for points given up to opposing Fantasy Wide Receivers, Hasselbeck’s career for all intents and purposes is done (it’s only a matter of time before Charlie Whitehurst and his luscious mane of hair get the starting gig), and the receivers aren’t all that talented to tell you the truth beyond John Carlson.  Golden Tate has some upside, but with no one good to throw him the ball, his fantasy goodness is severely limited.  If you own any Seattle receiver not named John Carlson, send them to the waiver wire.

Nate Washington (Tennessee Titans)(tied for 22^nd in targets):  Facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chris Johnson is a beast, and Kenny Britt is emerging as the #1 target (3 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks).  Now Washington did have one last week against Dallas, and it was a rather athletic leaping catch, but I don’t see many targets,  and thus fantasy points, going Washington’s way this week.  You play Britt, you don’t play Washington.

Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs) (tied for 29^th):  Is Dwayne Bowe tall?  Yes he is.  Can Dwayne Bowe jump?  Sure he can.  Does Dwayne Bowe catch footballs?  No, he doesn’t.  Bowe has 9 catches in 4 games, for an average of 2.25 catches a game.  Not even close to borderline good stats for a #1 receiver.  Is it his fault?  Possibly.  Matt Cassel sure doesn’t help with his inaccuracy, but I just don’t see the drive or the talent in Bowe to be a #1, worthy of playing week in and week out, which is most likely what you drafted him for.  He has 1 touchdown so far this season and has been targeted the same amount of times as rookie Tight End Tony Moeaki.  I think it’s time to throw in the towel on Bowe.  Bench him and find someone else to play this week (maybe McCluster?)

TE’s I love not named Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark:

Zach Miller (Oakland Raiders) (Tied for 11^th in Targets):  Miller is the #1 option for the Raiders, and they really have no one else to throw to.  Miller is tied for 11th in targets to receivers and tight ends combined, and ranks only second in targets to Dallas Clark amongst tight ends.  Targets are great, but Miller is making the most out of his targets with great production as well.  The Niners defense isn’t nearly as stingy as they were last year, so look for Miller to get another double target game, getting at least 10 catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown.

Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler (Detroit Lions)(tied for 17^th and tied for 16^th respectively):  On a normal week, both Pettigrew and Scheffler are targeted equally with good results.  With a banged up Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best, and a ferocious New York Giants pass rush, look for Shaun Hill to be dumping the ball off often, and the targets to even increase.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see an 8 catch performance from either or both with the touchdown coming most likely from Pettigrew.

Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots) (tied for 32^nd in targets):  Hernandez might be only tied for 32^nd in targets, but that’s all about to change.  With an inconsistent running game, and now no Randy Moss, Brady needs someone to throw to.  Certainly Brandon Tate is out there, as well as recently traded for Deion Branch, but I think Hernandez will benefit the most from the trade of Moss.  With the touches he was getting Hernandez produced (18 catches out of 20 targets for 240 yards).  So now no Moss means more targets for Hernandez and more production, especially in the red zone.  Look for Hernandez to be the next big Tight End.  If he’s available at all, snatch him up.

Todd Heap (Baltimore Ravens) (tied for 20^th in targets):  Simply said, the Baltimore Ravens are playing the New England Patriots this week, who are ranked 25^th overall in fantasy points given up to Tight Ends.  He’s basically the second most targeted tight end or receiver on his team (Mason has one more target than him).  The matchup looks good, the Ravens are going to throw, and I think Heap benefits.  I fully expect a touchdown and at least 6 for about 75 yards.   I love him so much this week, that I dropped Jermichael Finley (since his season is over) and picked up Heap in his place.

TE’s I hate:

Kevin Boss (New York Giants) (tied for 33^rd in targets):  I’ve never been a huge fan of Kevin Boss, and even though his targets have increased to about 6 a game over the last three, there hasn’t been much production to go with those targets.  Eli is all about the Giants wide receivers, and with a Detroit Lions defense that is ranked 4^th overall in points given up to opposing Tight Ends, he is not a good play this week.

Any St. Louis Tight End:  Normally when playing the San Diego Chargers, tight ends rack up the points.  But when your name is Daniel Fells or Billy Bajema, you unfortunately do not have the skills to take advantage.  No way you are using Fells as a bye week tight end, and if you’re even considering Bajema, you shouldn’t be playing fantasy football. 

Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots) (tied for 45^th in targets):  Of the two New England rookie Tight Ends, The Gronk is the lesser of the two.  With the addition of Deion Branch, the targets he was going to get with the departure of Randy Moss  will be going to Branch, Tate, and Gonzalez.  Don’t pick him up, not even for a bye week fill in.

Chris Cooley (Washington Redskins) (tied for 15^th in Targets):  I know, you’re shocked to see Cooley, a mild fantasy surprise so far this season, on the hate list.  Fact is, he’s facing the Colts, who are ranked #1 in fantasy points scored by opposing tight ends.  Is he going to get some targets?  Certainly he is, since the only other weapon the Redskins possess is Santana Moss.  Will he be productive with those targets?  I don’t think so.  You’re still going to play him if you don’t have a better option, but I don’t see big things from him at all this week.